How to Position for Major Market Rotations | Macro Mondays, Feb. 16, 2026

How to Position for Major Market Rotations, Macro Mondays by Real Vision (Michael and Andreas), 32 minutes.

Between 90 and 95 percent of the work that a professional macro research team used to do has now been automated by AI agents, and it happened in just 12 to 18 months. That bombshell came from Andreas, one of the hosts, and it sets the tone for a show that is really about one massive question: how do you invest when technology is destroying industry after industry and nobody knows who is next?

This episode covers three themes that will change how you think about markets right now: the AI kiss of death moving from sector to sector, the Goldilocks inflation environment nobody is pricing in, and the geopolitical wildcard that could end the gold trade overnight.

The AI Kiss of Death Is Hitting Sectors Nobody Expected

The AI disruption wave is moving faster than anyone predicted. A white paper dropped last week from an Asian trucking company claiming they increased shipping volumes by 300 percent using AI without adding any costs. Trucking stocks immediately fell out of bed. Andreas admitted this was not even on his radar. Trucking? Really?

This follows the same pattern they have tracked from sector to sector. Software as a service got hammered. Financial services got hit. Now logistics. As Andreas put it, we are currently at the stage where no one really gets where this is going, and if you extrapolate the trends, we are all dead in a couple of years. The acceleration is so fast that traditional equity analysis cannot keep up.

The most interesting debate in the episode centers on the hyperscalers. Free cash flow among the Magnificent Seven is in freefall as they pour money into AI infrastructure. A chart from BCA Research made the rounds, and the grumpy old men of portfolio management are using it to argue these stocks are untouchable. But Andreas flips the logic: if one of these companies stopped investing in AI and prioritized buybacks instead, where would that leave them? Dead. Every company that has survived so far has some kind of moat, whether technological edge, integration effects, or network effects. The race is existential. You worry about cash flow later.

Andreas polled his X audience on whether the bigger risk for the Mag Seven is overinvesting or underinvesting in AI. The result was a perfect 50/50, which means either nobody has a clue or the market is completely polarized between AI bulls and AI bears.

The Inflation Story Nobody Is Talking About

This is where the show gets genuinely actionable. There have been 10 inflation reports since Liberation Day and the tariff announcements. Seven of them came in substantially softer than expected. Real Vision's big data series, which they use instead of trying to guess tariff effects, keeps showing the same thing: inflation is softening.

The January report had one massive outlier in transportation services, a 1.35 percent monthly spike driven by the biggest increase ever recorded in auto registration fees and the biggest spike ever in parking fees. Outside of that single outlier, everything was benign. Shelter, goods, food, energy. All soft.

Here is the kicker that most investors are missing. Real Vision's nowcasting data shows February is running even softer than January, and March is historically a very soft inflation month. They are currently at a 90 percent probability of falling inflation relative to the most recent print. This creates a very real possibility that Jerome Powell could orchestrate one rate cut before Kevin Warsh takes over in June. Andreas believes Powell wants to round off his chairmanship cleanly and would love to deliver a final cut if the data supports it.

The Worst US Equity Performance Versus the World Since 1995

This chart stopped both hosts in their tracks. US equities versus the rest of the world year-to-date: worst relative performance since 1995. That is not a small outlier. It is historic.

What is driving it? A cyclical reacceleration is clearly building in the US economy, but simultaneously capital is flowing to Europe and emerging markets. The Euro zone's cyclical picture actually peaked right around the Greenland debacle and new tariff threats, and is now moving in the opposite direction. So beneath the surface, cyclical momentum is shifting toward the US and away from Europe, but European and other international equities are massively outperforming.

Andreas's framework is that this Goldilocks scenario, cyclical growth going up while inflation comes down, is simply not priced into US markets. Investors are too focused on sector-by-sector AI fears to see the macro picture. His recommendation: buy the supply chain of the Mag Seven rather than the Mag Seven themselves. Buy the companies receiving the capex rather than the ones spending it.

The Peace Deal That Could Kill the Gold Trade

The most provocative call in the episode involves gold. Russia floated a suggestion to the US about reintroducing Russia to the dollar system and SWIFT as part of a peace deal in Ukraine. Andreas has said repeatedly that the biggest risk to the gold trade is peace in Ukraine, because the war is what triggered the massive central bank gold buying spree in the first place.

The logic is straightforward. Trump wants to pull Russia away from China, which is exactly what Nixon did with China in the 1970s. Part of that reintegration means bringing Russia back into the dollar settlement system for fossil fuel exports, which are currently being settled in yuan. If Russia can access its gold reserves again and rejoin SWIFT, a lot of the case for other countries hoarding gold as insurance against confiscation simply evaporates.

Andreas was careful to note that gold still has decent risk-reward and they hold about 5 percent in their portfolio. But the regime shift in their nowcasting has made it less favorable. The dollar is stabilizing, which removes a tailwind, and the US cyclical recovery is actually dollar-positive.

The real sleeper trade, according to their AI pattern recognition model, is oil. It is flagged as the best risk-reward trade in all of macro right now, sitting in the 60 to 70 range with signs of a pickup. With a third of the US Navy deployed near Iran and the capability now being built for a prolonged conflict, not just a hit-and-run strike, oil also serves as a geopolitical tail hedge.

Bonds as the Sneaky AI Trade

Perhaps the most counterintuitive call: for the first time in a very long time, their nowcasting has flipped positive on global bonds. Andreas argues this could turn out to be one of the best AI trades of all, because if AI is genuinely passing through into the CPI and suppressing inflation, then bond yields have room to fall significantly.

This creates a setup where you can hold energy, technology supply chain names, and duration bonds simultaneously, an unusual cocktail that reflects just how early we are in this cyclical recovery.

Key Takeaways

AI disruption is accelerating sector by sector, and nobody knows which industry gets hit next. Trucking was the latest casualty.

Seven out of 10 inflation reports since tariffs were announced came in softer than expected. February is tracking even softer. A Powell rate cut before June is a real possibility.

US equities are having their worst year-to-date versus the rest of the world since 1995, and the macro setup suggests this could reverse.

A Ukraine peace deal with Russian reintegration into the dollar system is the biggest underpriced risk to gold.

Oil is flagged as the best risk-reward trade in macro, with geopolitical optionality from the Iran buildup.

Buy the AI supply chain, not the hyperscalers themselves. The companies receiving capex spending have better risk-reward than the ones doing the spending.